The first idea is, in my opinion, very logical, and thus the most probable as well. If you directly compare the struggling and the excelling nations by both geometrical size and native spoken language, you'll immediately discover vast differences. People living in small countries, speaking languages spoken uncommonly on a global basis, gain a natural attraction to English because of communicational demands. The large countries with vastly spoken languages follow a similar trend, but in the opposite direction. They do not feel as if they need to learn English. So basically, this idea relies on that the cause is somewhere within the motivation to learn English.
The other idea revolves around the wealth of the nations. It is a fact that wealth is not equally spread across the world. First of all, spending more money on English education usually gives better results. At the same time, globalization is greater in the wealthier countries due to Internet affordability and availability. Notice that China has placed strict limits to Internet accessibility, preventing the population from communicating with other countries. Furthermore, most Internet activities are based on the English language. Put two and two together and you see that Internet makes for globalization and then communcation in English. More communication in English makes for better English speakers, obviously!
I want to end this post by displaying the sources and statistics that i have been referring to:.
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Statistics for English Knowledgeability from: http://www.ef.no/__/~/media/efcom/epi/2014/full-reports/ef-epi-2013-report-master-new.pdf
Sources:
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